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Prediction for CME (2024-06-25T05:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-25T05:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31695/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption. The filament extended from approximately N15W55 to S30W15 on the disk, with liftoff seen starting around 2024-06-24T21:40Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-28T09:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-28T01:55Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-25 13:12
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-25 05:00
 - Radial speed: 556.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 38 deg
 - Eruption location: N03W39
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 572.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-06-28 01:55 (i.e. predicted transit time: 68.92 hours)
Lead Time: 54.15 hour(s)
Difference: 7.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-06-26T03:00Z
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